Late Late: Is the war about oil?


The problem with the Late Late Show was that there was a limited amount of time to transmit fairly complex ideas which is the problem with TV in general. It think they did well in the circumstances.

I would like to take one of the points made by the Israeli audience member whose name I can't remember. He didn't accept that this war about oil. His reasoning was that in simple economic terms the cost are much greater than the benefits in terms of oil production. If the war costs 1 billion dollars a day and let's say it goes on for 40 days that's 40 billion dollars. He would argue that the amount of oil needed to justify that is so great that the motive has to be something else.

I have reproduced below a table for the top 20 countries in the world for each of Oil Reserves, Production and Consumption. As is noted below these are only estimates but it gives us at least an indication of the kind of volumes involved.

We can see that Iraq is number 2 in the world in terms of reserves, number 12 for production and not on the list for consumption. Iraq's reserves are estimated to be 112,500,000,000 barrels of oil.

So it seems that there is enough oil in Iraq to at least ask questions about the motive for the war.

However, there is a crucial point to be made here and that is that the energy companies wont be paying for the war; that will be paid for by the US and UK taxpayers and others.

Whether the war costs more than the value of the oil reserves is largely irrelevant. The public will pay for the war and the oil companies will profit from it without paying a penny.

Reserves (millions of barrels as of January 1, 2002):
Top 20 countries

Saudi Arabia: 261,750
Iraq: 112,500
United Arab Emirates: 97,800
Kuwait: 96,500
Iran: 89,700
Venezuela: 77,685
Russia: 48,573
Libya: 29,500
Mexico: 26,941
Nigeria: 24,000
China: 24,000
United States: 22,045
Qatar: 15,207
Honvay: 9,947
Algeria: 9,200
Brazil: 8,465
Oman: 5,506
Kazakhstan: 5,417
Angola: 5,412
Indonesia: 5,000

First 20 Countries: 975,148
Rest of the World: 56,983
World: 1,032,132

Production (millions of barrels per day):
Top 20 Countries

Saudi Arabia: 8.528
United States: 8.091
Russia: 7.014
Iran: 3.775
Mexico: 3.560
Norway: 3.408
China: 3.297
Venezuela: 3.137
Canada: 2.749
United Arab Emirates: 2.550
United Kingdom: 2.540
Iraq: 2.377
Nigeria: 2.223
Kuwait: 1.838
Brazil: 1.589
Algeria: 1.486
Libya: 1.427
Indonesia: 1.384
Oman: .964
Argentina: 825

First 20 countries: 62.762
Rest of the World: 12.464
World: 75.226
World Annual: 28,180

Consumption (Millions of barrels per day):
Top 20 Countries

United States: 19.993
Japan: 5.423
China: 4.854
Germany: 2.814
Russia: 2.531
South Korea: 2.126
Brazil: 2.123
Canada: 2.048
France: 2.040
India: 2.011
Mexico: 1.932
Italy: 1.881
United Kingdom: 1.699
Spain: 1.465
SaudiArabia: 1.415
Iran: 1.109
Indonesia: 1.063
Netherlands: .881
Australia: .879
Taiwan: .846

First 20 Countries: 59.134
Rest of the World: 16.854
World: 75.988
World Annual: 28,460

Note: The estimation of resenes is fraught with politics and guesswork. The two annual industry benchmarks are compiled by World Oil and Oil and Cas lournal largely bom data provided by individual countries. Both outfits have placed "proven" global reserves at about 1 trillion barrels for most of the last decade. In contrast, in 1995 PetroConsultants estimated "assessed" resenes at 746 billion barrels.

It's suspected that many OPEC countries pump-up their estimated reserves because their production quotas are based on the size of the reservos. In 1988 and 1990, many Middle Eastern countries revTsed their reserves upwards dramatically despite no major new discoveries. From 1986 to 1990, according to data from World Oil and Oil and Cas lournal, global reserves increased a staggering 39 percent bom 708 billion barrels to 983 billion barrels.

From: www.eni.it/engDsh/notizie/analisi/numeri energia/index. html


Created By: tony thegreek